Contrarian betting is a betting philosophy with a lot of value. It’s taking advantage of public bias and getting the best college football odds and placing yourself on the side of the house.
Bias is something that holds many sports bettors back. If you’re betting on gut instinct, ignoring data, or falling into the trap of confirmation bias, you’re going to hold yourself back from being a successful sports bettor.
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What is Contrarian Betting?
If you’re going to be a successful sports bettor, you have to pick a philosophy and stick with it. If you’re picking and choosing, constantly changing what you do, you’re never going to see the results that you want to see.
Contrarian betting is betting against the public and recreational bettors, placing yourself on the side of the house.
You’re taking advantage of the fact that more often than not, the public loses and you want to be against the public overall.
Who Is the Public?
The public is casual or recreational bettors. They bet small amounts for fun or entertainment. They love betting favorites, home teams, and overs and gravitate towards big name teams, star players and recency bias.
They’re like the drunk guy sitting at the bar that you want to bet against. They don’t follow the data and bet with their heart and gut instinct.
Public bettors make up 95% of the market.
Becoming a Contrarian Bettor
In order to be a contrarian bettor, you have to get rid of any and all preconceived notions and really change the way you think about betting on sports.
You can’t bet like a fan. You have to remove all bias.
As a contrarian bettor, you’re going to have to bet a lot of underdogs, road teams and unders because those are the teams that are really undervalued overall.
You’re going to fall in love with teams that look horrible on paper and can’t possibly win or coer the spread. Those are the teams with a lot of value.
Unpopular teams have a ton of value. They get better numbers because they’re being dismissed by the public.
You want to put yourself on the side of the house. Cover up the names of the teams and players. Don’t let the bias of teams force you to make a bad bet.
Always make sure you’re looking at data and going off numbers and not biases.
The Method to Contrarian Betting
As a contrarian bettor, you’ll be focusing a lot on heavily bet games where there’s a lot of public action and lopsided betting.
You’re looking to get better numbers by betting on an unpopular opinion and taking the team that nobody wants. By doing that, you’ll be getting better numbers in general.
Look for inflated lines and shaded lines. For instance, if you see an unpopular underdog go from +3 to +2 or a favorite go from -7 to -6 ½ this could be a sign sharp money is coming in on the underdog and that’s the side you want to be on.
Keep in mind that oddsmakers set their lines already taking public bias into consideration by shading the popular side.
Bet favorites early and underdogs late. Waiting until the last second to bet on an underdog can be a very profitable strategy.
The thing with being a contrarian better is that it is not attractive and can be very frustrating. It’s a long term-term grind. You’re betting on bad, sometimes horrible teams.
You can’t pick when you go and don’t go, contrarian. You have to be consistent and stick with it for the long term.
Also, remember contrarian isn’t the end all be all. It’s the foundation and the starting point. You have to do your home work and make sure you’re on the sharp side of every play.
Lastly, ignore the noise. Don’t get caught up in media bias. Make bets based on data and research.